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I am afraid this is a self-inflicted problem. You are using a Download ID which no longer exists under your user account. You will have to re-enter your Download ID.

I would recommend reading the entire documentation section on Download IDs. It explains how you can check them yourself in case something similar happens in the future.

I think I was being a bit too circumspect on my previous reply. I apologize. I try to not overanalyze in my replies when I can help it to avoid coming across as intimidating or condescending. This doesn't mean I am giving you a throwaway generic reply without having really looked into your issue, or that I am not aware of what could possibly have gone wrong. I can of course expand on the thought process and the underlying facts.

Keep in mind that we do NOT have control over the updates; it's Joomla discovering, downloading, and installing them as I have explained in the documentation. The only thing we have control is whether to allow you to download something or not. This is what the Download ID is for. The Download ID is a user identifier; it tells us who you are. If you enter it wrong, omit it, or somehow Joomla does not send it to us (e.g. because a third party plugin in the system or installer group messed up – this is something we have seen in the past but which does not seem to apply to you since I do see a Download ID in your screenshot) we don't know who is trying to download the software and we decline the download with a 403 error. If you do not have an active subscription to the product being downloaded we will also decline the download with a 403 error. That's the entirety of our control over extension updates.

Regarding your being adamant it's not a Download ID issue, I could only give you a reply based on the information you have given me. What you showed me was a site that had an invalid Download ID.

As for the other sites, frankly, I don't know if they are Joomla or WordPress, and which product or products you are trying to update. I don't know if they are on the same or a different server / host. I do not know if your host implemented a change which might be caching a 403 reply on a URL regardless of its URL query parameters, breaking updates to all paid extensions among other things. I don't know if your Download IDs are correct, and whether the correct Download IDs were entered before Joomla reported updates being found. I have no information to prove or disprove the existence of any of these potential issues.

I do, however, know how the download system works, and when it's updated – which was just over 8 months ago. I also have access to a lot of signals which tell me if it's working correctly that you don't have access to. I could already see it's working fine for everyone else. Before replying to you, I did check if it's a problem on our end. I checked your active subscriptions, made sure the permissions on your user are correct based on your one active subscription, and made sure that a download from a known good site using your Download ID labeled "BeInBlossom" worked (the Download ID was picked at random; any Download ID would do). Which is to say, I very positively confirmed this is not  an issue on our end. That's when I started writing my previous reply.

There's an issue on your end, be it a user error (like this erroneous Download ID), or a server issue. This is exactly what I had in mind when I asked you to please read the entire documentation section on updates. Part of this documentation page is the troubleshooting process for update issues you need to follow.

Finally, regarding your question about whether the Download IDs changed, I can tell you that no, we did not make any change on our end. If we were to ever make such a change you'd receive an email well in advance, and there would also be a public announcement on our home page.

I hope this gives you better insight into my reply and why I am asking you to follow the troubleshooting guide.

OK, this is better. We are getting somewhere. I think there's stuck update information. Can you please try to click that Check For Updates button to force Joomla to reload the update information?

I did find another ticket on your site that someone had the same issue going from 9.9.6 to 9.9.7 and you told them to go straight to 9.9.9, could this be my issue.

Their update information were stuck on an older release. I told them to go straight to the then-current release to avoid them hitting a bug I had already fixed in the meantime.